@article{95804,
  keywords = {Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Infectious Diseases},
  author = {Cromwell EA and Osborne JCP and Unnasch TR and Basáñez M and Gass KM and Barbre KA and Hill E and Johnson KB and Donkers KM and Shirude S and Schmidt CA and Adekanmbi V and Adetokunboh OO and Afarideh M and Ahmadpour E and Ahmed MB and Akalu TY and Al-Aly Z and Alanezi FM and Alanzi TM and Alipour V and Andrei CL and Ansari F and Ansha MG and Anvari D and Appiah SCY and Arabloo J and Arnold BF and Ausloos M and Ayanore MA and Baig AA and Banach M and Barac A and Bärnighausen TW and Bayati M and Bhattacharyya K and Bhutta ZA and Bibi S and Bijani A and Bohlouli S and Bohluli M and Brady OJ and Bragazzi NL and Butt ZA and Carvalho F and Chatterjee S and Chattu VK and Chattu SK and Cormier NM and Dahlawi SMA and Damiani G and Daoud F and Darwesh AM and Daryani A and Deribe K and Dharmaratne SD and Diaz D and Do HT and El Sayed Zaki M and El Tantawi M and Elemineh DA and Faraj A and Fasihi Harandi M and Fatahi Y and Feigin VL and Fernandes E and Foigt NA and Foroutan M and Franklin RC and Gubari MIM and Guido D and Guo Y and Haj-Mirzaian A and Hamagharib Abdullah K and Hamidi S and Herteliu C and Hidru HDD and Higazi TB and Hossain N and Hosseinzadeh M and Househ M and Ilesanmi OS and Ilic MD and Ilic IM and Iqbal U and Irvani SSN and Jha R and Joukar F and Jozwiak JJ and Kabir Z and Kalankesh LR and Kalhor R and Karami Matin B and Karimi SE and Kasaeian A and Kavetskyy T and Kayode GA and Kazemi Karyani A and Kelbore AG and Keramati M and Khalilov R and Khan EA and Khan MNN and Khatab K and Khater MM and Kianipour N and Kibret KT and Kim YJ and Kosen S and Krohn KJ and Kusuma D and La Vecchia C and Lansingh VC and Lee PH and LeGrand KE and Li S and Longbottom J and Magdy Abd El Razek H and Magdy Abd El Razek M and Maleki A and Mamun AA and Manafi A and Manafi N and Mansournia MA and Martins-Melo FR and Mazidi M and McAlinden C and Meharie BG and Mendoza W and Mengesha EW and Mengistu DT and Mereta ST and Mestrovic T and Miller TR and Miri M and Moghadaszadeh M and Mohammadian-Hafshejani A and Mohammadpourhodki R and Mohammed S and Mohammed S and Moradi M and Moradzadeh R and Moraga P and Mosser JF and Naderi M and Nagarajan AJ and Naik G and Negoi I and Nguyen CT and Nguyen HLT and Nguyen TH and Nikbakhsh R and Oancea B and Olagunju TO and Olagunju AT and Omar Bali A and Onwujekwe OE and Pana A and Pourjafar H and Rahim F and Rahman MHU and Rathi P and Rawaf S and Rawaf DL and Rawassizadeh R and Resnikoff S and Reta MA and Rezapour A and Rubagotti E and Rubino S and Sadeghi E and Saghafipour A and Sajadi SM and Samy AM and Sarmiento-Suárez R and Sawhney M and Schipp MF and Shaheen AA and Shaikh MA and Shamsizadeh M and Sharafi K and Sheikh A and Shetty BSK and Shin JI and Shivakumar KM and Simonetti B and Singh JA and Skiadaresi E and Soheili A and Soltani S and Spurlock EE and Sufiyan MB and Tabuchi T and Tapak L and Thompson RL and Thomson AJ and Traini E and Tran BX and Ullah I and Ullah S and Uneke CJ and Unnikrishnan B and Uthman OA and Vinkeles Melchers NVS and Violante FS and Wolde HF and Wonde TE and Yamada T and Yaya S and Yazdi-Feyzabadi V and Yip P and Yonemoto N and Yousof HSA and Yu C and Yu Y and Yusefzadeh H and Zaki L and Zaman SB and Zamanian M and Zhang Z and Zhang Y and Ziapour A and Hay SI and Pigott DM},
  editor = {Wanji S},
  title = {Predicting the environmental suitability for onchocerciasis in Africa as an aid to elimination planning},
  abstract = {<jats:p>Recent evidence suggests that, in some foci, elimination of onchocerciasis from Africa may be feasible with mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. To achieve continental elimination of transmission, mapping surveys will need to be conducted across all implementation units (IUs) for which endemicity status is currently unknown. Using boosted regression tree models with optimised hyperparameter selection, we estimated environmental suitability for onchocerciasis at the 5 × 5-km resolution across Africa. In order to classify IUs that include locations that are environmentally suitable, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify an optimal threshold for suitability concordant with locations where onchocerciasis has been previously detected. This threshold value was then used to classify IUs (more suitable or less suitable) based on the location within the IU with the largest mean prediction. Mean estimates of environmental suitability suggest large areas across West and Central Africa, as well as focal areas of East Africa, are suitable for onchocerciasis transmission, consistent with the presence of current control and elimination of transmission efforts. The ROC analysis identified a mean environmental suitability index of 0·71 as a threshold to classify based on the location with the largest mean prediction within the IU. Of the IUs considered for mapping surveys, 50·2% exceed this threshold for suitability in at least one 5 × 5-km location. The formidable scale of data collection required to map onchocerciasis endemicity across the African continent presents an opportunity to use spatial data to identify areas likely to be suitable for onchocerciasis transmission. National onchocerciasis elimination programmes may wish to consider prioritising these IUs for mapping surveys as human resources, laboratory capacity, and programmatic schedules may constrain survey implementation, and possibly delaying MDA initiation in areas that would ultimately qualify.</jats:p>},
  year = {2021},
  journal = {PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases},
  volume = {15},
  pages = {e0008824},
  publisher = {Public Library of Science (PLoS)},
  issn = {1935-2735},
  url = {https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0008824&type=printable},
  doi = {10.1371/journal.pntd.0008824},
  language = {eng},
}