02319nas a2200277 4500000000100000008004100001653010900042100001400151700001500165700001400180700001300194700001300207700001300220700001700233700001400250700001700264700001100281700001000292700001700302245009100319856019300410300001400603490000700617520140300624022001402027 2016 d10aarboviral diseases; chikungunya virus; emerging or re-emerging diseases; spatial modelling; surveillance1 aNsoesie E1 aKraemer MU1 aGolding N1 aPigott D1 aBrady OJ1 aMoyes CL1 aJohansson MA1 aGething P1 aVelayudhan R1 aKhan K1 aHay S1 aBrownstein J00aGlobal distribution and environmental suitability for chikungunya virus, 1952 to 2015. uhttps://www.researchgate.net/profile/Simon_Hay/publication/303374201_Global_distribution_and_environmental_suitability_for_Chikungunya_virus_1952_to_2015/links/57485ab408ae0b9b0a3fc859.pdf apii=302340 v213 a

Chikungunya fever is an acute febrile illness caused by the chikungunya virus (CHIKV), which is transmitted to humans by Aedes mosquitoes. Although chikungunya fever is rarely fatal, patients can experience debilitating symptoms that last from months to years. Here we comprehensively assess the global distribution of chikungunya and produce high-resolution maps, using an established modelling framework that combines a comprehensive occurrence database with bespoke environmental correlates, including up-to-date Aedes distribution maps. This enables estimation of the current total population-at-risk of CHIKV transmission and identification of areas where the virus may spread to in the future. We identified 94 countries with good evidence for current CHIKV presence and a set of countries in the New and Old World with potential for future CHIKV establishment, demonstrated by high environmental suitability for transmission and in some cases previous sporadic reports. Aedes aegypti presence was identified as one of the major contributing factors to CHIKV transmission but significant geographical heterogeneity exists. We estimated 1.3 billion people are living in areas at-risk of CHIKV transmission. These maps provide a baseline for identifying areas where prevention and control efforts should be prioritised and can be used to guide estimation of the global burden of CHIKV.

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