01907nas a2200301   4500000000100000008004100001653002100042653001100063653001700074653000900091653003300100653001500133653001900148653002400167653001100191653001000202653002300212653003500235653001200270653001300282100001200295700001200307245014800319300001100467490000600478520110700484022001401591       2012                            d10aTropical Climate10aRivers10aRisk Factors10aRain10aPrincipal Component Analysis10aPrevalence10aonchocerciasis10aModels, Theoretical10aHumans10aGhana10aGeography, Medical10aGeographic Information Systems10aBurundi10aAltitude1 aBarro A1 aOyana T00aPredictive and epidemiologic modeling of the spatial risk of human onchocerciasis using biophysical factors: a case study of Ghana and Burundi.  a273-850 v33 a<p>Although recent efforts taken have substantially contained human onchocerciasis in many African countries, published reports indicate a recrudescence of the disease. To understand this problem, biophysical factors that favor the establishment of human onchocerciasis in Ghana and Burundi-countries identified as threat locations of recrudescence for neighboring countries-were analyzed. Data pertaining to the prevalence of human onchocerciasis in both countries was obtained from published sources. Findings in this study suggest that there was a gradient in prevalence of onchocerciasis in geographic locations near the water streams. The predictive models suggest that rainfall, humidity, and elevation were statistically significant for Burundi data while in Ghana, only the effect of elevation was highly significant (p&lt;0.0001). In 2010, the estimated at-risk population was 4,817,280 people (19.75% of the total population) and 522,773 people (6.23% of the total population) in Ghana and Burundi, respectively. Findings can help in the effective design of preventive control measures.</p>
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