01649nas a2200241   4500000000100000008004100001653003900042653001700081653001300098653001400111100001700125700001100142700001700153700001400170700001500184700001700199245007600216856009900292300001300391490000700404520098200411022001401393       2018                            d10aNeglected tropical diseases (NTDs)10aBuruli ulcer10arainfall10aAustralia1 aYerramilli A1 aTay EL1 aStewardson A1 aFyfe JA M1 aO'Brien DP1 aJohnson PD R00aThe association of rainfall and Buruli ulcer in southeastern Australia.  uhttps://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0006757&type=printable  ae00067570 v123 a<p><strong>BACKGROUND: </strong>Buruli ulcer has been increasing in incidence in southeastern Australia with unclear transmission mechanisms. We aimed to investigate the link between rainfall and case numbers in two endemic areas of the state of Victoria; the Bellarine and Mornington Peninsulas.</p>

<p><strong>METHODOLOGY: </strong>We created yearly and monthly graphs comparing rainfall with local Buruli ulcer incidence for the period 2004-2016 by endemic region and then considered a range of time lag intervals of 0-24 months to investigate patterns of correlation.</p>

<p><strong>CONCLUSIONS: </strong>Optimal positive correlation for the Bellarine Peninsula occurred with a 12-month prior rainfall lag, however, no significant correlation was observed on the Mornington Peninsula for any time lag. These results provide an update in evidence to further explore transmission mechanisms which may differ between these geographically proximate endemic regions.</p>
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