01570nas a2200217 4500000000100000008004100001260001200042653001400054653003900068653000900107100001200116700001400128700001300142700001600155700001200171245009500183300000900278490000600287520104500293022001401338 2019 d c01/201910aModelling10aNeglected tropical diseases (NTDs)10aYaws1 aDyson L1 aMooring E1 aHolmes A1 aTildesley M1 aMarks M00aInsights from quantitative and mathematical modelling on the proposed 2030 goals for Yaws. a15760 v33 a

The World Health Organization is currently developing 2030 goals for neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). In these, yaws has been targeted for eradication by 2030, with 50% of member states certified free of yaws transmission by 2023. Here we summarise the yaws modelling literature and discuss the proposed goal and strategy. The current Morges strategy involves rounds of Total Community Treatment (TCT), in which all members of the community are treated, and Total Targeted Treatment (TTT), treating active cases and their contacts. However, modelling and empirical work suggest that latent infections are often not found in the same household as active cases, reducing the utility of household-based contact tracing for a TTT strategy. Economic modelling has also discovered uncertainty in the cost of eradication, requiring further data to give greater information. We also note the need for improved active surveillance in previously endemic countries, in order to plan future intervention efforts and ensure global eradication.

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