02206nas a2200289 4500000000100000008004100001260001200042653002700054653003800081653002600119653001300145100001200158700001200170700001200182700001600194700001300210700001300223700001300236700001300249700001400262700001400276700002100290245011100311856010400422520137600526022001401902 2021 d c01/202110aacceleration, COVID-1910aelimination, lymphatic filariasis10amitigation, modelling10aCovid-191 aPrada J1 aStolk W1 aDavis E1 aTouloupou P1 aSharma S1 aMuñoz J1 aRivera R1 aReimer L1 aMichael E1 ade Vlas S1 aHollingsworth DT00aDelays in lymphatic filariasis elimination programmes due to COVID-19, and possible mitigation strategies. uhttps://academic.oup.com/trstmh/advance-article-pdf/doi/10.1093/trstmh/trab004/36157127/trab004.pdf3 a
BACKGROUND: In view of the current global coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, mass drug administration interventions for neglected tropical diseases, including lymphatic filariasis (LF), have been halted. We used mathematical modelling to estimate the impact of delaying or cancelling treatment rounds and explore possible mitigation strategies.
METHODS: We used three established LF transmission models to simulate infection trends in settings with annual treatment rounds and programme delays in 2020 of 6, 12, 18 or 24 months. We then evaluated the impact of various mitigation strategies upon resuming activities.
RESULTS: The delay in achieving the elimination goals is on average similar to the number of years the treatment rounds are missed. Enhanced interventions implemented for as little as 1 y can allow catch-up on the progress lost and, if maintained throughout the programme, can lead to acceleration of up to 3 y.
CONCLUSIONS: In general, a short delay in the programme does not cause a major delay in achieving the goals. Impact is strongest in high-endemicity areas. Mitigation strategies such as biannual treatment or increased coverage are key to minimizing the impact of the disruption once the programme resumes and lead to potential acceleration should these enhanced strategies be maintained.
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