01666nas a2200253   4500000000100000008004100001260004400042100001300086700001500099700001100114700001300125700001400138700001600152700001600168700001700184700001300201700001100214700001600225245010500241856005900346490000600405520098700411022001401398       2021                            d  bSpringer Science and Business Media LLC1 aBhatia S1 aLassmann B1 aCohn E1 aDesai AN1 aCarrion M1 aKraemer MUG1 aHerringer M1 aBrownstein J1 aMadoff L1 aCori A1 aNouvellet P00aUsing digital surveillance tools for near real-time mapping of the risk of infectious disease spread  uhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41746-021-00442-3.pdf0 v43 a<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>Data from digital disease surveillance tools such as ProMED and HealthMap can complement the field surveillance during ongoing outbreaks. Our aim was to investigate the use of data collected through ProMED and HealthMap in real-time outbreak analysis. We developed a flexible statistical model to quantify spatial heterogeneity in the risk of spread of an outbreak and to forecast short term incidence trends. The model was applied retrospectively to data collected by ProMED and HealthMap during the 2013–2016 West African Ebola epidemic and for comparison, to WHO data. Using ProMED and HealthMap data, the model was able to robustly quantify the risk of disease spread 1–4 weeks in advance and for countries at risk of case importations, quantify where this risk comes from. Our study highlights that ProMED and HealthMap data could be used in real-time to quantify the spatial heterogeneity in risk of spread of an outbreak.</jats:p>  a2398-6352