01739nas a2200241   4500000000100000008004100001260001000042653004900052653005700101653002100158653002500179100001400204700001500218700001200233700001400245700001300259245007100272856004100343300001100384490000700395520108100402022001401483       2022                            d  bPeerJ10aGeneral Agricultural and Biological Sciences10aGeneral Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology10aGeneral Medicine10aGeneral Neuroscience1 aKimball P1 aLevenson J1 aMoore A1 aRychtar J1 aTaylor D00aAn ODE model of yaws elimination in Lihir Island, Papua New Guinea  uhttps://peerj.com/articles/13018.pdf  ae130180 v103 a<p>Yaws is a chronic infection that affects mainly the skin, bone and cartilage and spreads mostly between children. The new approval of a medication as treatment in 2012 has revived eradication efforts and now only few known localized foci of infection remain. The World Health Organization strategy mandates an initial round of total community treatment (TCT) with single-dose azithromycin followed either by further TCT or by total targeted treatment (TTT), an active case-finding and treatment of cases and their contacts. We develop the compartmental ODE model of yaws transmission and treatment for these scenarios. We solve for disease-free and endemic equilibria and also perform the stability analysis. We calibrate the model and validate its predictions on the data from Lihir Island in Papua New Guinea. We demonstrate that TTT strategy is efficient in preventing outbreaks but, due to the presence of asymptomatic latent cases, TTT will not eliminate yaws within a reasonable time frame. To achieve the 2030 eradication target, TCT should be applied instead.</p>
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