02341nas a2200265   4500000000100000008004100001260004400042653004300086653003800129653001800167653005700185653001200242653004000254653001700294653003200311100001500343700001500358700001700373700001600390245009600406856005900502300000900561520149100570022001402061       2023                            d  bSpringer Science and Business Media LLC10aManagement, Monitoring, Policy and Law10aNature and Landscape Conservation10aUrban Studies10aRenewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment10aEcology10aGeography, Planning and Development10aFood Science10aGlobal and Planetary Change1 aSkinner EB1 aGlidden CK1 aMacDonald AJ1 aMordecai EA00aHuman footprint is associated with shifts in the assemblages of major vector-borne diseases  uhttps://www.nature.com/articles/s41893-023-01080-1.pdf  a1-133 a<p>Predicting how increasing intensity of human–environment interactions affects pathogen transmission is essential to anticipate changing disease risks and identify appropriate mitigation strategies. Vector-borne diseases (VBDs) are highly responsive to environmental changes, but such responses are notoriously difficult to isolate because pathogen transmission depends on a suite of ecological and social responses in vectors and hosts that may differ across species. Here we use the emerging tools of cumulative pressure mapping and machine learning to better understand how the occurrence of six medically important VBDs, differing in ecology from sylvatic to urban, respond to multidimensional effects of human pressure. We find that not only is human footprint—an index of human pressure, incorporating built environments, energy and transportation infrastructure, agricultural lands and human population density—an important predictor of VBD occurrence, but there are clear thresholds governing the occurrence of different VBDs. Across a spectrum of human pressure, diseases associated with lower human pressure, including malaria, cutaneous leishmaniasis and visceral leishmaniasis, give way to diseases associated with high human pressure, such as dengue, chikungunya and Zika. These heterogeneous responses of VBDs to human pressure highlight thresholds of land-use transitions that may lead to abrupt shifts in infectious disease burdens and public health needs.</p>
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