TY - JOUR
KW - Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs)
KW - Buruli ulcer
KW - rainfall
KW - Australia
AU - Yerramilli A
AU - Tay EL
AU - Stewardson A
AU - Fyfe JA M
AU - O'Brien DP
AU - Johnson PD R
AB - <p><strong>BACKGROUND: </strong>Buruli ulcer has been increasing in incidence in southeastern Australia with unclear transmission mechanisms. We aimed to investigate the link between rainfall and case numbers in two endemic areas of the state of Victoria; the Bellarine and Mornington Peninsulas.</p>

<p><strong>METHODOLOGY: </strong>We created yearly and monthly graphs comparing rainfall with local Buruli ulcer incidence for the period 2004-2016 by endemic region and then considered a range of time lag intervals of 0-24 months to investigate patterns of correlation.</p>

<p><strong>CONCLUSIONS: </strong>Optimal positive correlation for the Bellarine Peninsula occurred with a 12-month prior rainfall lag, however, no significant correlation was observed on the Mornington Peninsula for any time lag. These results provide an update in evidence to further explore transmission mechanisms which may differ between these geographically proximate endemic regions.</p>

BT - PLoS neglected tropical diseases
C1 - <p>http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30222751?dopt=Abstract</p>

DO - 10.1371/journal.pntd.0006757
IS - 9
J2 - PLoS Negl Trop Dis
LA - eng
N2 - <p><strong>BACKGROUND: </strong>Buruli ulcer has been increasing in incidence in southeastern Australia with unclear transmission mechanisms. We aimed to investigate the link between rainfall and case numbers in two endemic areas of the state of Victoria; the Bellarine and Mornington Peninsulas.</p>

<p><strong>METHODOLOGY: </strong>We created yearly and monthly graphs comparing rainfall with local Buruli ulcer incidence for the period 2004-2016 by endemic region and then considered a range of time lag intervals of 0-24 months to investigate patterns of correlation.</p>

<p><strong>CONCLUSIONS: </strong>Optimal positive correlation for the Bellarine Peninsula occurred with a 12-month prior rainfall lag, however, no significant correlation was observed on the Mornington Peninsula for any time lag. These results provide an update in evidence to further explore transmission mechanisms which may differ between these geographically proximate endemic regions.</p>

PY - 2018
EP - e0006757
T2 - PLoS neglected tropical diseases
TI - The association of rainfall and Buruli ulcer in southeastern Australia.
UR - https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0006757&type=printable
VL - 12
SN - 1935-2735
ER -