TY - JOUR
KW - Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
KW - Infectious Diseases
AU - Cromwell EA
AU - Osborne JCP
AU - Unnasch TR
AU - Basáñez M
AU - Gass KM
AU - Barbre KA
AU - Hill E
AU - Johnson KB
AU - Donkers KM
AU - Shirude S
AU - Schmidt CA
AU - Adekanmbi V
AU - Adetokunboh OO
AU - Afarideh M
AU - Ahmadpour E
AU - Ahmed MB
AU - Akalu TY
AU - Al-Aly Z
AU - Alanezi FM
AU - Alanzi TM
AU - Alipour V
AU - Andrei CL
AU - Ansari F
AU - Ansha MG
AU - Anvari D
AU - Appiah SCY
AU - Arabloo J
AU - Arnold BF
AU - Ausloos M
AU - Ayanore MA
AU - Baig AA
AU - Banach M
AU - Barac A
AU - Bärnighausen TW
AU - Bayati M
AU - Bhattacharyya K
AU - Bhutta ZA
AU - Bibi S
AU - Bijani A
AU - Bohlouli S
AU - Bohluli M
AU - Brady OJ
AU - Bragazzi NL
AU - Butt ZA
AU - Carvalho F
AU - Chatterjee S
AU - Chattu VK
AU - Chattu SK
AU - Cormier NM
AU - Dahlawi SMA
AU - Damiani G
AU - Daoud F
AU - Darwesh AM
AU - Daryani A
AU - Deribe K
AU - Dharmaratne SD
AU - Diaz D
AU - Do HT
AU - El Sayed Zaki M
AU - El Tantawi M
AU - Elemineh DA
AU - Faraj A
AU - Fasihi Harandi M
AU - Fatahi Y
AU - Feigin VL
AU - Fernandes E
AU - Foigt NA
AU - Foroutan M
AU - Franklin RC
AU - Gubari MIM
AU - Guido D
AU - Guo Y
AU - Haj-Mirzaian A
AU - Hamagharib Abdullah K
AU - Hamidi S
AU - Herteliu C
AU - Hidru HDD
AU - Higazi TB
AU - Hossain N
AU - Hosseinzadeh M
AU - Househ M
AU - Ilesanmi OS
AU - Ilic MD
AU - Ilic IM
AU - Iqbal U
AU - Irvani SSN
AU - Jha R
AU - Joukar F
AU - Jozwiak JJ
AU - Kabir Z
AU - Kalankesh LR
AU - Kalhor R
AU - Karami Matin B
AU - Karimi SE
AU - Kasaeian A
AU - Kavetskyy T
AU - Kayode GA
AU - Kazemi Karyani A
AU - Kelbore AG
AU - Keramati M
AU - Khalilov R
AU - Khan EA
AU - Khan MNN
AU - Khatab K
AU - Khater MM
AU - Kianipour N
AU - Kibret KT
AU - Kim YJ
AU - Kosen S
AU - Krohn KJ
AU - Kusuma D
AU - La Vecchia C
AU - Lansingh VC
AU - Lee PH
AU - LeGrand KE
AU - Li S
AU - Longbottom J
AU - Magdy Abd El Razek H
AU - Magdy Abd El Razek M
AU - Maleki A
AU - Mamun AA
AU - Manafi A
AU - Manafi N
AU - Mansournia MA
AU - Martins-Melo FR
AU - Mazidi M
AU - McAlinden C
AU - Meharie BG
AU - Mendoza W
AU - Mengesha EW
AU - Mengistu DT
AU - Mereta ST
AU - Mestrovic T
AU - Miller TR
AU - Miri M
AU - Moghadaszadeh M
AU - Mohammadian-Hafshejani A
AU - Mohammadpourhodki R
AU - Mohammed S
AU - Mohammed S
AU - Moradi M
AU - Moradzadeh R
AU - Moraga P
AU - Mosser JF
AU - Naderi M
AU - Nagarajan AJ
AU - Naik G
AU - Negoi I
AU - Nguyen CT
AU - Nguyen HLT
AU - Nguyen TH
AU - Nikbakhsh R
AU - Oancea B
AU - Olagunju TO
AU - Olagunju AT
AU - Omar Bali A
AU - Onwujekwe OE
AU - Pana A
AU - Pourjafar H
AU - Rahim F
AU - Rahman MHU
AU - Rathi P
AU - Rawaf S
AU - Rawaf DL
AU - Rawassizadeh R
AU - Resnikoff S
AU - Reta MA
AU - Rezapour A
AU - Rubagotti E
AU - Rubino S
AU - Sadeghi E
AU - Saghafipour A
AU - Sajadi SM
AU - Samy AM
AU - Sarmiento-Suárez R
AU - Sawhney M
AU - Schipp MF
AU - Shaheen AA
AU - Shaikh MA
AU - Shamsizadeh M
AU - Sharafi K
AU - Sheikh A
AU - Shetty BSK
AU - Shin JI
AU - Shivakumar KM
AU - Simonetti B
AU - Singh JA
AU - Skiadaresi E
AU - Soheili A
AU - Soltani S
AU - Spurlock EE
AU - Sufiyan MB
AU - Tabuchi T
AU - Tapak L
AU - Thompson RL
AU - Thomson AJ
AU - Traini E
AU - Tran BX
AU - Ullah I
AU - Ullah S
AU - Uneke CJ
AU - Unnikrishnan B
AU - Uthman OA
AU - Vinkeles Melchers NVS
AU - Violante FS
AU - Wolde HF
AU - Wonde TE
AU - Yamada T
AU - Yaya S
AU - Yazdi-Feyzabadi V
AU - Yip P
AU - Yonemoto N
AU - Yousof HSA
AU - Yu C
AU - Yu Y
AU - Yusefzadeh H
AU - Zaki L
AU - Zaman SB
AU - Zamanian M
AU - Zhang Z
AU - Zhang Y
AU - Ziapour A
AU - Hay SI
AU - Pigott DM
AU - Wanji S
AB - <jats:p>Recent evidence suggests that, in some foci, elimination of onchocerciasis from Africa may be feasible with mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. To achieve continental elimination of transmission, mapping surveys will need to be conducted across all implementation units (IUs) for which endemicity status is currently unknown. Using boosted regression tree models with optimised hyperparameter selection, we estimated environmental suitability for onchocerciasis at the 5 × 5-km resolution across Africa. In order to classify IUs that include locations that are environmentally suitable, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify an optimal threshold for suitability concordant with locations where onchocerciasis has been previously detected. This threshold value was then used to classify IUs (more suitable or less suitable) based on the location within the IU with the largest mean prediction. Mean estimates of environmental suitability suggest large areas across West and Central Africa, as well as focal areas of East Africa, are suitable for onchocerciasis transmission, consistent with the presence of current control and elimination of transmission efforts. The ROC analysis identified a mean environmental suitability index of 0·71 as a threshold to classify based on the location with the largest mean prediction within the IU. Of the IUs considered for mapping surveys, 50·2% exceed this threshold for suitability in at least one 5 × 5-km location. The formidable scale of data collection required to map onchocerciasis endemicity across the African continent presents an opportunity to use spatial data to identify areas likely to be suitable for onchocerciasis transmission. National onchocerciasis elimination programmes may wish to consider prioritising these IUs for mapping surveys as human resources, laboratory capacity, and programmatic schedules may constrain survey implementation, and possibly delaying MDA initiation in areas that would ultimately qualify.</jats:p>
BT - PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases
DO - 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008824
IS - 7
LA - eng
N2 - <jats:p>Recent evidence suggests that, in some foci, elimination of onchocerciasis from Africa may be feasible with mass drug administration (MDA) of ivermectin. To achieve continental elimination of transmission, mapping surveys will need to be conducted across all implementation units (IUs) for which endemicity status is currently unknown. Using boosted regression tree models with optimised hyperparameter selection, we estimated environmental suitability for onchocerciasis at the 5 × 5-km resolution across Africa. In order to classify IUs that include locations that are environmentally suitable, we used receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis to identify an optimal threshold for suitability concordant with locations where onchocerciasis has been previously detected. This threshold value was then used to classify IUs (more suitable or less suitable) based on the location within the IU with the largest mean prediction. Mean estimates of environmental suitability suggest large areas across West and Central Africa, as well as focal areas of East Africa, are suitable for onchocerciasis transmission, consistent with the presence of current control and elimination of transmission efforts. The ROC analysis identified a mean environmental suitability index of 0·71 as a threshold to classify based on the location with the largest mean prediction within the IU. Of the IUs considered for mapping surveys, 50·2% exceed this threshold for suitability in at least one 5 × 5-km location. The formidable scale of data collection required to map onchocerciasis endemicity across the African continent presents an opportunity to use spatial data to identify areas likely to be suitable for onchocerciasis transmission. National onchocerciasis elimination programmes may wish to consider prioritising these IUs for mapping surveys as human resources, laboratory capacity, and programmatic schedules may constrain survey implementation, and possibly delaying MDA initiation in areas that would ultimately qualify.</jats:p>
PB - Public Library of Science (PLoS)
PY - 2021
EP - e0008824
T2 - PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases
TI - Predicting the environmental suitability for onchocerciasis in Africa as an aid to elimination planning
UR - https://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0008824&type=printable
VL - 15
SN - 1935-2735
ER -