02222nas a2200457   4500000000100000008004100001653001500042653001300057653001300070653000900083653001700092653001100109653001700120653001400137653001400151653001100165653001000176653001900186653000800205653001000213653001400223653002600237653002900263653001300292100001100305700001000316700001300326700001100339700001500350700001200365700000900377700001100386700001200397700000900409245010400418856009800522300001300620490000700633520111000640022001401750       2017                            d10aAir Travel10aAircraft10aAmericas10aAsia10aSoutheastern10aDengue10aDengue virus10aEvolution10aMolecular10aHumans10aIndia10aphylogeography10aRNA10aViral10aSerogroup10aSocioeconomic Factors10aSpatio-Temporal Analysis10aThailand1 aTian H1 aSun Z1 aFaria NR1 aYang J1 aCazelles B1 aHuang S1 aXu B1 aYang Q1 aPybus O1 aXu B00aIncreasing airline travel may facilitate co-circulation of multiple dengue virus serotypes in Asia.  uhttp://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pntd.0005694&type=printable  ae00056940 v113 a<p>The incidence of dengue has grown dramatically in recent decades worldwide, especially in Southeast Asia and the Americas with substantial transmission in 2014-2015. Yet the mechanisms underlying the spatio-temporal circulation of dengue virus (DENV) serotypes at large geographical scales remain elusive. Here we investigate the co-circulation in Asia of DENV serotypes 1-3 from 1956 to 2015, using a statistical framework that jointly estimates migration history and quantifies potential predictors of viral spatial diffusion, including socio-economic, air transportation and maritime mobility data. We find that the spread of DENV-1, -2 and -3 lineages in Asia is significantly associated with air traffic. Our analyses suggest the network centrality of air traffic hubs such as Thailand and India contribute to seeding dengue epidemics, whilst China, Cambodia, Indonesia, and Singapore may establish viral diffusion links with multiple countries in Asia. Phylogeographic reconstructions help to explain how growing air transportation networks could influence the dynamics of DENV circulation.</p>
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