Climate change risks to human development in sub-Saharan Africa: a review of the literature

Climate change could threaten sub-Saharan Africa's progress on human development, but impact studies often focus on intermediate effects instead. We conduct a systematic literature review of projected climate impacts on three important dimensions of human development: food insecurity, water stress, and disease. Despite a large impact literature, only 28 studies project quantitative outcomes for these dimensions of development, and even these studies sometimes focus on proxies for outcomes of interest. Studies forecast that climate change could reduce hunger by <1 million or increase it by up to 55 million people in 2050. In 2030, climate change could increase diarrheal disease cases by 88.4–134.2 million and malaria cases by 30.1–58.5 million, but decrease malaria cases in West Africa. Findings on water stress are less consistent. In the 2050s, climate change could expose up to 921 million additional people to water stress while at the same time reducing exposure by up to 459 million. Several factors, including projection and comparison years, make it difficult to compare findings. Greater focus on projecting climate change implications for well-being and a common approach to reporting results could refine ranges and improve comparability across the literature.