Epidemiology of Socioeconomic and Regional Study of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis Case Patterns in High Leishmanasois Burden Districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

This study examines the monthly health case trends from January 2020 to March 2025 across five regional districts—Karak, Khyber, Mohmand, Dir Lower, and Bajaur. The objective was to identify consistent seasonal patterns, compare year-to-year fluctuations, and provide actionable insights for public health planning. The analysis used monthly reported case data, applying descriptive statistics and visual trend analysis to track changes over five years. Findings revealed a strong, recurring seasonal pattern across all districts: cases typically rise between June and August, peaking in August, and drop sharply in September. Annual case counts remained within the 2,500–3,600 range per district, indicating a sustained public health burden. While Karak and Mohmand showed moderate year-to-year variation, Dir Lower and Bajaur were highly consistent. The early months of 2025 started with relatively low numbers, but a mid-year spike is likely based on prior trends. The consistent drop in September may be influenced by environmental shifts or underreporting, which requires further investigation. It is recommended that health authorities enhance resource allocation and preventive strategies ahead of the mid-year surge, explore the root causes of the September drop, and encourage inter-district collaboration. Overall, the data provides a reliable foundation for predictive planning and early interventions to manage seasonal health trends effectively.