How modelling can better support public health policy making: the Lancet Commission on Strengthening the Use of Epidemiological Modelling of Emerging and Pandemic Infectious Diseases

Epidemiological modelling has had a crucial role as part of public health planning in informing responses to pandemics and emerging infectious diseases. Models have helped us understand pathogen and disease dynamics, project scenarios about future outcomes, and inform public health responses. Global events that have influenced the growth of modelling capacity in academic and public health agencies include the HIV pandemic, the 2003 SARS outbreak, the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic, and the pandemic of COVID-19 in 2020.  Outside of pandemics, models are increasingly being used to inform responses to emerging disease threats such as antimicrobial resistance and climate-sensitive infectious diseases.