Modelling the evolution of female genital schistosomiasis among female children with untreated urinary schistosomiasis in Nigeria

Schistosomiasis, a neglected tropical disease in sub-tropical Africa, heavily affects Nigeria. Intestinal and urogenital are the two main types of schistosomiasis. Female genital schistosomiasis (FGS), a chronic stage of urogenital schistosomiasis, faces elimination challenges due to limited awareness, especially in rural areas. A notable gap exists in the utilization of mathematical modeling approach to address FGS. Previous research efforts have predominantly focused on other aspects of schistosomiasis despite the significant health burden posed by FGS, particularly in Nigeria. This study developed age-structured deterministic compartmental model governed by a system of non-linear differential equations to study FGS dynamics among Nigerian females. The basic reproduction number, R0, was computed using the next generation method to assess the potential for disease persistence in female population. Boundedness and positivity of solutions were carried out to ensure the model remains epidemiologically and mathematically meaningful over time. Sensitivity analysis and numerical simulations were carried out using R software, sensitivity analysis results show that without timely diagnosis and treatment, urinary schistosomiasis may progress to FGS, increasing cercariae and miracidia populations in water bodies and thus enhancing transmission. Numerical analysis show that if appropriate actions are not taken, such as timely diagnosis and treatment, urinary schistosomiasis might lead to FGS for affected women and girls. Targeted interventions such as treatment with praziquantel for infected female children can effectively reduce FGS.