Spatial analysis of anthropogenic landscape disturbance and Buruli ulcer disease in Benin.

Changes in land and use and land cover can impact ecosystems in unexpected ways, including changes in habitat suitability for environmental pathogens. Several studies have investigated the impacts of human disturbance to the landscape and changes in the composition of vector, host, and reservoir species in an altered area, but few studies have linked these disturbances to environmental pathogens. Buruli ulcer disease is a neglected tropical disease caused by the environmental pathogen Mycobacterium ulcerans. This study investigated land cover patterns surrounding villages in southern Benin to identify relationships between disturbed landscapes and disease prevalence. The authors were also interested in whether the drivers of disease prevalence had a spatial structure that could provide clues to environmental characteristics important to disease presence. Results suggested that villages surrounded by natural, or undisturbed wetlands had higher BU rates, and there was, in fact, a spatial structure to the pattern of disease prevalence. The authors used these outcomes to create the first continuous, BU risk map across southern Benin and Togo, even though the exact drivers of disease transmission remain unknown. Predicting potential risk adequately provides valuable information toward prevention, while helping to target public health resources more efficiently.