Survival analysis of Chagas disease patients, beneficiaries of social security and social assistance in Brazil, 1942–2016
Objective: To analyze the survival of patients with Chagas disease, beneficiaries of social security and social assistance, in Brazil, from 1942 to 2016.
Methods: This is a retrospective cohort study with data from the Brazilian Ministry of Social Security. The event of interest was death, and the survival functions were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression methods.
Results: In the period “onset of the disease until death”, women (HR=0.54; 95%CI 0.43–0.53) and receiving social security benefits (HR=0.13; 95%CI 0.11–0.23) were associated with longer survival. Lower survival was associated with the cardiac form of the disease (HR=2.64; 95%CI 2.23–3.12), living in a rural area (HR=1.23; 95%CI 1.14–1.21), and manifestation of the disease between the years 2000 and 2016 (HR=5.32; 95%CI 4.74–5.93). Likewise, in the period “work disability until death”, women (HR=0.51; 95%CI 0.41–0.52) and receiving social security benefits (HR=0.24; 95%CI 0,14–0.45) were associated with longer survival, as well as the cardiac form of the disease (HR=1.95; 95%CI 1.83–2.13), living in a rural area (HR=1.31; 95%CI 1.21–1.54), and manifestation of the disease between 2000 and 2016 (HR=1.53; 95%CI 1.33–1.71) were associated with lower survival.
Conclusion: The main predictors of mortality and survival of patients with Chagas disease who receive social security and assistance benefits in Brazil were presented. These findings can guide the definition of priorities for follow-up actions by Primary Health Care, currently recommended for the longitudinal management of the disease.
Portuguese Abstract:
Objetivo: Analisar a sobrevida de portadores da doença de Chagas, beneficiários da previdência e da assistência social no Brasil, 1942-2016.
Métodos: Estudo de coorte retrospectivo com dados do Ministério da Previdência Social. O evento de interesse foi o óbito, e as funções de sobrevida foram estimadas pelos métodos Kaplan-Meier e de regressão de Cox.
Resultados: No período “início da doença até o óbito”, o sexo feminino (HR=0,54; IC95% 0,43–0,53) e recebimento de benefícios previdenciários (HR=0,13; IC95% 0,11–0,23) foram associados a maior sobrevida. A menor sobrevida esteve associada à forma cardíaca da doença (HR=2,64; IC95% 2,23–3,12), residência em zona rural (HR=1,23; IC95% 1,14–1,21) e manifestação da doença entre os anos de 2000 e 2016 (HR=5,32; IC95% 4,74–5,93). Da mesma forma, no período “incapacidade laboral até o óbito”, o sexo feminino (HR=0,51; IC95% 0,41– 0,52) e o recebimento de benefícios previdenciários (HR=0,24; IC95% 0,14–0,45) foram associados a maior sobrevida, assim como forma cardíaca da doença (HR=1,95; IC95% 1,83–2,13), residência em zona rural (HR=1,31; IC95% 1,21–1,54) e manifestação da doença entre os anos de 2000 e 2016 (HR=1,53; IC95% 1,33–1,71) associaram-se a menor sobrevida.
Conclusão: Os principais preditores de mortalidade e sobrevida de portadores de doença de Chagas que recebem benefícios previdenciários e assistenciais no Brasil foram apresentados. Estes achados podem nortear a definição de prioridades de ações de acompanhamento pela atenção primária à saúde, preconizada atualmente para o manejo longitudinal da doença